Saddam's Gambit / December 2002

Chess is a classic game of strategy and tactics. Ancient warriors from knights to kings have used the game to sharpen their skills for armed conflict. Modern strategists also use elements of the game to understand the nature of conflict. Most of you, like myself, are but mere pawns in the bigger game of chess played in the world.

A gambit is a particular chess move with great strategy. Webster defines a gambit as an opening move in chess where a pawn or other piece is sacrificed to get an advantage or position. A Queen’s Gambit game is where the Queen’s pawn is advanced two spaces, unprotected, allowing the opponent to take the pawn, while the first player gets some other advantage. Simply said, it makes the other player play the gambit game. In any conflict, chess or modern war, the strategy is to make your opponent go and react to what you want. This doesn’t give him time to play his game; he is playing your game. Therefore, a gambit in an armed conflict is simply an opening maneuver or action intended to gain advantage.

Saddam Hussein as the leader of Iraq is in a dangerous game with the world and the United States. To the most casual observer, the United States is on a clear course of conflict with Iraq. They are merely picking their spot and preparing to take dead aim at Saddam’s government. Saddam knows this. The only surprise in this future attack is where and when. That’s not much of a surprise either as everyone knows the United States will follow the UN resolutions and build their forces up in the region for a short war. The hope is that the United States will quickly overwhelm the Iraqi forces as they did in the 100 hour ground portion of the Gulf War.

In recent days, the British have reported that Saddam is preparing for his family and generals to escape Iraq. He has paid Libya some 3.5 billion dollars for a safe haven. This would seem to indicate that even Saddam knows how the game will end. With all this building, the United States preparing to attack, the strong UN resolutions, and the inevitability of a United States military victory, you would think Saddam would resign from the game and walk away. But Saddam has one move left that could disrupt the entire game against him. In fact, this one move could stop the United States in its tracks completely and turn the UN in his favor. I call it Saddam’s Gambit.

We need to review a couple of facts about the Middle East and its players. Israel is fighting for its survival. Israel’s neighbors would like to see Israel cease to exist. This fact has been true since the war of independence in May of 1948 to July of 1949. Many wars have been fought since then with various territories trading hands (Israel wins them, then gives them back). The Palestinians of course lay claim to the West Bank region, originally held by Jordan and lost to Israel. Israel has been giving back pieces under the Oslo accords. However, the Palestinians plainly want all Jews gone from the Middle East. They have been using the Middle East Peace Accord only to build themselves up for advantage.

Other Muslim nations such as Syria, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, and Saudi Arabia support the demise of Israel by whatever means. This includes financial and moral support to the Palestinians, UN votes and resolutions against Israel, and leveraging oil supplies to western nations. It is this last area that gets the western world’s attention.

The United States is a wealthy consuming nation of Arab oil. As leader of the free world, we want to see everyone we do business with prosper as well, and that requires free flowing oil to our friends. Additionally, we have a large Jewish population that has been proactive toward Israel. They are joined with a growing number of Christian Zionists (conservative Republicans) who are very supportive of Israel. The combination of these factors has led the US leadership to favor (use) Israel for keeping an eye on world oil production. The United States was one of the first nations to recognize the state of Israel in 1948. The United States has strategically worked with Israel particularly in military weaponry. This qualitative technical advantage over their neighbors has enabled Israel to prevail over their attacking neighbors. As an added bonus, the United States military has also gained from this relationship. Let me give you just a couple of examples.

The United States has been very successful with the use of unmanned drones flown by the CIA in tracking down and killing terrorists in Afghanistan. They first used these unarmed drones in the Gulf War. Are these drones an American developed weapon system? No. They were developed by Israel. This was a clear gain for the United States. The United States is also very interested in building an anti-ballistic missile system. Rogue nations like North Korea, Iran and others would love to have the capability of striking the United States with a ballistic missile. News reports tell us that these nations are aggressively pursuing such weapons. They would never win such a war with the U.S., but just hitting the United States once is too costly. The United States, therefore, is developing an anti-ballistic missile system that can destroy an incoming missile at high altitude. This is much different from the Patriot anti-missile system which kills at low altitude. Israel and the Gulf War proved that low altitude weapons don’t really work. So, who developed this much better high altitude anti-missile system called the "Arrow Missile System?" It was developed by Israel. The United States is now jointly developing it here in the U.S.

These small examples are not intended to suggest that Israel is better, smarter, or that the relationship with the United States is one-way. The fact is that the United States has helped Israel with modern tanks, high performance aircraft, and early warning space technology. This is the qualitative technical advantage that has overcome the quantitative Arab advantage. The relationship between the U.S. and Israel is a mature, give and take proposition; it is not a one-sided arrangement of the U.S. always helping Israel. The United States has been supportive and cooperative with Israel because it is in the best interests of the United States to do so. Popular citizen support by pro-Israel voters is also recognized by Congress and the President. With that said, let us also deal with a misunderstood fact about the US/Israel relationship.

The United States can never be a full military ally with Israel. That is, the United States and Israel can never fight side by side in a shooting war. Why?

Many in the world believe that Israel can not exist on its own without help from the United States. Many, particularly the Arab world, believe that a separation between the United States and Israel is in their best interest and they are more than willing to work toward that goal. If the United States were to fully ally with Israel, the world’s condemnation would be overwhelming. The United States, for its part, has postured themselves as seeking the good of all. They are playing the role of leader of the free world, seeking the prosperity of all. They have for instance worked with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Jordan. The United States has given them aid, finances and military hardware and training. They have made efforts to reach out to Syria and others. But in doing so, they have done all of it under the definition of not being an ally to Israel. If the United States were to join Israel in a shooting war attacking any one of the surrounding Muslim nations, then the world would accuse the United States of being the ally of Israel from the beginning. Let me take you back to the Gulf War. The United States insisted that Israel not be part of the coalition against Iraq nor fight back when Saddam’s Scud missiles hit them. Do you remember why the U.S. brought the Patriot batteries to Israel? The U.S. had to keep Israel from shooting back because no one would join the United States in the war against Iraq if Israel was shooting also. But let’s fast forward to the present.

Iraq has had ten years since the Gulf War. Besides being non-cooperative with UN weapons inspectors, supporting other terrorist elements in the world, and trying to rebuild some weapons of mass destruction, Iraq has been building a new relationship with Syria and Iran. Iraq has always had an excellent relationship with the Palestinian Authority. One of the driving considerations pulling these countries together since the Gulf War is the hatred of the United States and its support of Israel. Their justification for lumping us together is that we have been "secret allies" all along. We are called the "Great Satan" while Israel is called the "little Satan." The combination of seeking revenge against the United States and hatred of Israel since the days of Ishmael and Isaac has produced our present situation. In particular, Saddam has an entire nation and its economy to build and plan an attack against the United States. Many believe that he was behind the 9-11 attack. Whether or not Saddam was directly involved, the United States believes that he would do it if he could. Saddam and Iraq are considered a much greater threat that Osama Bin Laden and the Al Queda network.

Should the United States go to war with Iraq to disarm them or get a regime change, Israel can not join in the fight. Saddam knows this. If Israel did attack at the same time as the U.S., then this would prove that the United States was lying all along and would destroy all U.S. relationships with all Middle East countries (save Israel of course). It would shred the UN resolutions against Iraq. It would also have adverse consequences for the United States in other regions of the world. Most likely, Arab oil would be cut-off from the U.S. and anyone friendly with the U.S. This would mean that Europe would definitely be opposed to us; they are totally dependent upon Arab oil. In the final analysis, the cost to the United States would be too high.

With these facts in place, let’s for the moment look at Saddam’s options. For example, let’s say Saddam seizes the initiative for the attack from the United States. Before the United States hits Iraq, Iraq hits Israel. Let’s say that a regional war breaks out with an invasion of Israel by the combined forces of Iraq, Syria, and Iran (Hezbolah) invading the northern part of Israel. Would the United States then attack Iraq as part of its present UN action. No way! The United States have put themselves in this box. The United States knows that any military action against Iraq at that time would put them in the position of "defending" Israel as a military ally. This is completely inconsistent with U.S. foreign policy. I am not talking about Iraq attacking Israel in response to U.S. action. I am saying that Iraq’s opening move – Saddam’s Gambit – would stop the United States dead in its tracks from attacking Iraq. It would stop the UN from authorizing an attack on Iraq. Saddam knows this.

Would Iraq be able to lead such a coalition of nations like Syria, Iran, and the Palestinians against Israel? According to foreign press reports, this strategic relationship already exists and both Egypt and Saudi Arabia are afraid of it. You don’t have to convince Israel about this possibility. Israel has been consulting with the United States, making them aware of every move made by Iran, Syria, and Iraq to their north. Presently Israel is making gas masks and small pox vaccinations available to Israel on a mass scale. Iraq is reported to have small pox as a biological weapon of mass destruction. President Bush is very aware that his actions against Iraq will have consequences for Israel. But, I wonder if he is aware that Saddam could beat him to the draw.

There is another reason why the United States can not fight alongside Israel in a major shooting war. Some military analysts believe that the next version of an Arab/Israeli war will go nuclear in three days. An invasion against Israel from the north with a Palestinian uprising would go bad for Israel. Israel would be put in the position of evacuating and protecting with their conventional forces rather than taking the fight to the invading enemy. Should invading forces cross the Jordan and enter the Samarian or Judean mountains in force, Israel would be in great danger of being driven into the sea. What would Israel do? Israel would not allow itself to be destroyed and cast out of the land like the Romans did. Israel has another strategy in this chess game and it is more powerful than Saddam’s Gambit. It is called the Masada Complex.

Masada was a mountain top fortress south of the Dead Sea. It was besieged by the Romans when Israel was attacked by Titus. Although this fortress fought long and hard, the Romans breached the top and found that a mass suicide had taken place. The Jews refused to give the Romans the satisfaction of killing them. The Masada Complex is based upon this historic battle. Only this time, the Jews are saying they will take the enemy completely out before they die, and Israel has the weapons to do exactly that. So what does this mean to our present scenario?

Israel has the resolve and will use every weapon at its disposal. They have nuclear weapons. Israel will use those weapons if they believe they are facing another Masada. They won’t, however, just defeat the invading army. They will also attack the invading countries and eliminate them completely. That would mean no more Damascus or Baghdad. The United States military understands this. Therefore, the United States would not want to be allied with anyone dropping neutron bombs, wiping out entire countries, nor would they want to be in the process of invading countries being wiped out by Israel. The United States has no choice but to keep back from an Israeli fight using nuclear weapons.

A gambit is only an opening move. It does not guarantee a win. Saddam can gain some advantage against the UN and the United States by attacking Israel first. But, attacking Israel will cost him even more, but Saddam does not believe that. Saddam believes that forcing the United States back and separating their support for Israel guarantees a victory against Israel. Syria and Iran believe it also.

As pressure builds against Iraq, the only question for the United States is how quickly and by what means does Saddam want to go out. Will he just walk away? Will one of his inner circle try to save his country by assassinating Saddam? Will Iraq try to survive a war with the United States? I’m suggesting that Saddam has another option; he has the first move. If Saddam wants to move first, there is no better move from his standpoint than to attack Israel and start a regional war. It will stop the United States cold, but it will open up the game to other things. Israel will will have the freedom to do what they must, and the God of Israel will act on behalf of His people. It may be that Saddam’s Gambit is simply the prophecy of Ezekiel. Ezekiel said that God would put a hook in the mouth of the northern enemy and pull him down into the mountains of Israel by means of an evil plan. Saddam’s Gambit may be the evil plan.

Thus says the Lord God, "It will come about on that day, that thoughts will come into your mind, and you will devise an evil plan, and you will say, ‘I will go up against the land of unwalled villages. I will go against those who are at rest, that live securely, all of them living without walls, and having no bars or gates, to capture spoil and to seize plunder, to turn your hand against the waste places which are now inhabited, and against the people who are gathered from the nations, who have acquired cattle and goods, who live at the center of the world.’"

Ezekiel 38:10-12

Ezekiel also goes on to explain that the Prince of Rosh (Saddam Hussein) will come from the people whom the prophets spoke of before – the Babyonians.

Thus says the Lord God, "Are you the one of whom I spoke in former days through My servants the prophets of Israel, who prophesied in those days for many years that I would bring you against them?"

Ezekiel 38:17

In the end, God will use Saddam to reveal God to the world and manifest Himself to Israel.

And you will come from your place out of the remote parts of the north, you and many peoples with you, all of them riding on horses, a great assembly and a mighty army; and you will come up against My people Israel like a cloud to cover the land. It will come about in the last days that I shall bring you against My land, in order that the nations may know Me when I shall be sanctified through you before their eyes, O Gog.

Ezekiel 38:15-16

And with pestilence and with blood I shall enter into judgment with him; and I shall rain on him, and on his troops, and on the many peoples who are with him, a torrential rain, with hailstones, fire, and brimstone. And I shall magnify Myself, sanctify Myself, and make Myself known in the sight of many nations; and they will know that I am the Lord.

Ezekiel 38:22-23

But if all this happens what will the United States and the UN do? What will we all say when Israel is victorious over this invading force and the attacking countries are destroyed? I believe that the nations will fulfill the words of the prophet Joel and say, "Surely, there is a God in the midst of Israel."

Thus you will know that I am in the midst of Israel, and that I am the Lord your God and there is no other; and My people will never be put to shame.

Joel 2:27

Don’t be surprised brethren if this Iraq showdown drags on for a while and we hear more saber rattling. I’m sure that Saddam will try to play games with the UN and the weapons inspectors. That game is called "hide and seek." But then we will come to the big chess game. The United States and the UN are like the black pieces; Saddam and Iraq are like the white pieces. White gets to move first in chess. The United States and the UN must wait for Saddam’s first move. They think it is compliance or non-compliance with the UN resolutions. But Saddam has another move he can make. It’s Saddam’s Gambit.

Moses tells us in Genesis 32 how Jacob was afraid to return to the promised land. Jacob had completed 20 years of service to Laban and was returning with his wives and children. But if you recall, Jacob had left 20 years earlier because of his brother Esau. Jacob had received both Esau’s birthright and blessing. Some would argue that the blessing was stolen by his deception of Isaac, but the fact remains that Jacob had them and Esau was angry – angry enough to threaten him with his life. Now, Jacob was returning and Esau was coming to meet him with 400 hundred armed men.

If we fast forward through the story, Esau and Jacob finally meet and results are the opposite of what you would expect.

Then Esau ran to meet him and embraced him, and fell on his neck and kissed him, and they wept.

Genesis 33:4

It’s almost like one of those Hollywood endings. There is Jacob approaching Esau and Esau runs and embraces Jacob. All is well and everyone is happy and lives happily ever after … Not quite. That is what happens in Hollywood, but this life and Esau’s embrace and kiss is not a Hollywood ending. It is totally something else. The contrast between Jacob’s fear and Esau’s kiss are at opposite ends. The story demands that we reconcile the fear and the kiss; this is not a fairy tale or a Hollywood story.

History shows us that Esau’s descendants became the Edomites and a great trouble to Israel. Prophetically, this trouble has even come to our day. Moses has given us a sign in the Torah by the way he wrote the word "kiss." The scribes have faithfully copied the Torah even to this day with this special sign. What sign did Moses give us? Moses put six dots above the word "kiss," one for each letter.

The Sages have debated and discussed this sign from Moses for many millennia. For the most part, everyone has agreed that while Esau was enthusiastic and very demonstrative in his affection toward Jacob, it was insincere. To illustrate this insincerity, they say Moses put the dots above each letter. These dots are, according to the sages, Esau’s teeth.

One explanation says that Esau was using the guise of a loving embrace but he intended to literally bite Jacob’s neck like an attacking lion. However, God protected Jacob by transforming his neck into marble and Esau broke his teeth on Jacob’s neck. This is why Esau wept. While I enjoy Rabbinic stories and somewhat agree with the basis for the story, I don’t think Jacob’s neck was hard as marble, nor that Esau went away toothless. I think Moses has given us a sign of warning.

Before we address Esau’s kiss and the dots above each letter, let us go back into the story a little bit before the reunion. First, there is much in this story that has to do with us. In fact, it is my intention to show that Esau’s kiss is something we have seen and experienced in our modern day.

What happens to the fathers will happen to the descendants. These are the words of Torah teachers, past and present. What has happened to Abraham, Isaac, and Jacob has happened and will happen to their descendants. The events of Jacob’s trouble and distress before coming into the land are the prophecies of the last generation. It is the last generation that will see the end of the age of the Gentiles and the return to the land of Israel with the Messiah. The Messiah, as the Great Shepherd, will gather us all up by resurrection and rapture before the Messianic era. The prophet Jeremiah specifically speaks of this difficult time and calls it, "Jacob’s Trouble." Most Christians have heard of it as the tribulation – a time of distress as the world has never seen before.

What exactly is Jacob’s Trouble and what is that we are to learn from Jacob’s fear and kiss of Esau? When Jacob left Laban and sent messengers to Esau that he was returning, why was Jacob so afraid? At first blush, most would say that Jacob was afraid because Esau was coming with 400 armed men. That doesn’t sound like a welcoming committee, does it? However, let’s recall something else that Jacob knew. God had given Jacob a promise to protect and preserve him in his journeys and return to the land. In fact, God had promised to cause his descendants to become as the stars of heaven in great number. So, why was Jacob afraid and in terror of facing Esau? Didn’t God protect Jacob for 20 years from the cheating Laban? Didn’t God say that He would bring him into the land and cause him to prosper?

So, was it a lack of faith on Jacob’s part? Why was Jacob so afraid? This is an important lesson for us. Remember, this is going to happen to us. What happens to the fathers, happens to the descendants; we are the descendants. The prophets have said that we will go through "Jacob’s trouble." This is about us.

We are going to be afraid, but what are we going to be afraid of? Is it because we lack faith or is it something else? The answer is with Jacob in Genesis 32. Jacob tells us why he was afraid. Jacob was walking in faith; he was going where God told him to go. He was not afraid of Esau for himself; he was afraid primarily for his wives and children.

Then Jacob was greatly afraid and distressed; and he divided the people who were with him, and the flocks and the herds and the camels, into two companies; for he said, "If Esau comes to the one company and attacks it, then the company which is left will escape." And Jacob prayed to God relying on his faith, "Deliver me, I pray, from the hand of my brother, from the hand of Esau; for I fear him, lest he come and attack me, the mothers with the children."

Genesis 32:7-8, 11

This is why we will be truly afraid of in the days ahead. We will be afraid for our families and children. This is why Churchmen want a pretrib rapture; they are afraid for their wives and children in the great tribulation. We are not afraid of the antichrist, per se. We think we can run away like Jacob did from Esau. Instead, we are afraid of what the antichrist and his system might do to our families. We are like Jacob coming back to the land.

The Palestinians understand this kind of fear and that is why they send suicide bombers into crowded areas of Israel. This is why they willfully murder women (mothers and grandmothers) and children. They want to instill the greatest fear they can into the hearts of Israel. They want to cause "Jacob’s Trouble." Maybe this is why the Rabbis in Israel have declared that we were in the days of "Jacob’s Trouble" after the seven-year peace process was annulled in September of 2000.

Do you remember the famous handshake between Yasser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin with President Clinton on the White House lawn? Have you seen Arafat enthusiastically kiss one of his visitors? It’s the kiss of Esau. The world now knows that Arafat’s handshake, however enthusiastic, is not sincere. The world now know that his kiss is a put-on, an attempt to use his teeth on the neck of his adversaries. Gangsters and mobsters do the same thing. They call it a kiss of death.

We have watched Israel faced with the fear of Jacob and we seen Esau’s kiss. Moses gave us this sign to warn us. He wanted us to be careful, to understand how the enemy would attempt to persuade us, but truly endanger us. The same will be true for the antichrist when he comes on the world scene. He will appear to be genuine and caring for all of us, but the prophets tell us that he will not be a caring shepherd. Instead, he will cause even greater harm than anyone imagined. This is why he is called the son of perdition (destruction). The prophet Zechariah likens the antichrist to a false shepherd who does great harm.

For behold, I am going to raise up a shepherd in the land who will not care for the perishing, seek the scattered, heal the broken, or sustain the one standing, but will devour the flesh of the fat sheep and tear off their hoofs.

Zechariah 11:16

So what can we learn from our father Jacob as his descendants? First, the fear for our children must be put into the hands of our Heavenly Father who intends to make them become as the stars of heaven. Secondly, we must not be fooled by the enthusiastic embrace and kiss of our enemy. We know that it is insincere and not what it appears to be. It is really the kiss of Esau.

So, why are their six dots above the six letters? Six means a lot of things in Scripture to us. God created the heavens and the earth in six days and rested on the seventh. Man was created on the sixth day. Noah was six hundred years when the flood came. Jacob served six years for his flocks. Hebrew slaves served six years and were then freed. There are six branches in the menorah. But maybe the most interesting of them all is the clue given about the antichrist’s name. It is a clue to us so we won’t be fooled by his kiss. His name will be six hundred sixty six.

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